Posted on March 3, 2025.
Due to cutbacks, no German supermarket sub-£5 wine was available for this year’s meeting between Nigel Bland and Tony Cotton, our two redundant GP reporters from the more affluent days, and to avoid heating bills they met over an English Breakfast (£7) and a £1.60 tea in Stourport, the Black Country’s answer to Monaco.
NB: As we’re writing for the FOC we need to start with ‘The Man’ don’t we. Do you think Lewis will be a success?
TC: I’m not optimistic. Looking at his performance this year, I wonder if he’s past his best? Seventh in the championship and more important 22 points behind, and outshone by, George Russell. I wouldn’t put Russell as any better than Charles Leclerc – far from it – so will Lewis (we have to call him that rather than Hamilton now he’s one of ours) be able to keep up with Charles? Like many others I think he’s just gone for a pre-retirement bash to get a Ferrari tick on the CV.
NB: I don’t buy into that. At the time he jumped from Mercedes, Ferrari looked like the best challenger to Red Bull. He’s gone because he thought Ferrari were his best chance of an eighth World Championship. He might pay lip service to the heritage and the atmosphere, but he’s still competitive. I agree that he had some dire results – Brazil for example – but he did win with excellent races at Silverstone and Spa, and came back from that Sao Paulo disaster to follow Russell in at Las Vegas from 10th in qualifying. When he’s motivated, he can still perform. There wasn’t anything to fight for at Mercedes. He was leaving, the car was good but not brilliant, why should he strain himself? Unlike Alonso, for example, his passion isn’t motorsport, his passion is winning. At Ferrari there’s something to prove and the ultimate prize of that eighth World Championship. I would forecast that in the first few races he will cement his place in the team – think Mansell , Rio, 1989 – but after that it will depend on the car.
TC: So who’ll be the competition? Red Bull faded a bit with Newey departing. I don’t see technical man Pierre Waché as having the flair that Newey had to get them the best car.
NB: They started off well but by mid-season there were undoubtedly issues. Verstappen seemed to be able to overcome them but Perez just fell apart. Coincidentally, around the time they renewed his contract.
TC: Yes. 118 points in the first 6 events, 34 from the remaining 18 (including sprints). Like Ricciardo a couple of years ago, I don’t think Perez suddenly forgot how to drive, there must have been something in the car that meant his great strength – feeling the car and coaxing it – was lost. It just shows (sadly) how good Verstappen is that (with a bit of whinging) he could overcome it. AI’s quite fashionable and I think he has a sort of AI brain that mechanistically learns the car. I also respect him for the work he puts in to learn the rules and the nuances of them. He would be banned (or at least ostracized) in most club racing paddocks but when he is (libel lawyers please check) “forceful and assertive” he technically has the rules on his side.
NB: I think Verstappen will still be a major factor in the championship. He’s more in the Schumacher mould of not wanting to be beaten. That’s different to wanting to win and results in a different style. Anything on or off track that doesn’t get you banned is fair game.
TC: And the internal competition? Charles is not going to be slow. He’s loved by the team and the Tifosi. He’s charismatic and is one of the fastest out there. The cars will be equal and, if anything, initially geared to Charles’s style. So if he does eclipse Lewis, maybe even win the championship, would you be surprised?
NB: Perhaps not. Lando came so close to the title this year when, just as Red Bull went off the boil, they got their act together. I can’t see McLaren starting the year badly, but I will be interested to see if they can keep up their momentum. I also think they’ve got strength in depth with Piastri. Two wins when he’s been in F1 for two years, and only one of those in a front running car. If I were Lando, I would be looking over my shoulder.
TC: I rate Lando highly as a driver, but I question his completeness. Like others, he got the procedure wrong when the start was aborted in Brazil. George made the same mistake. Not only did Verstappen and Hamilton not make the mistake, you just know they’d put in the work to learn the rules to the last semicolon.
Moving on to the newcomers for 2025, any thoughts? Not exactly a newcomer, but Bearman looks a good prospect. Who’s the Frenchman I can’t remember and haven’t heard of?
NB: You really need to watch F2. The highlights are free you know….or perhaps Ginetta Junior Winter Series? Isack Hadjar (VCARB, or Toro Rossa/Minardi as you call them) was second in F2 and fourth in F3, so that’s good, but prior to that he didn’t really impress. Probably in over his head. But there should be some entertainment as his rants make Tsunoda sound like John Watson.
TC: So why have they got him?
NB: I believe they were after Colapinto so he’s a bit of a make-weight. Colapinto, on the other hand, has been set aside from Williams, but they’ve done a very lucrative deal with Alpine/Renault. Not bought out, just subcontracted. Try getting odds for Jack Doohan completing a half season.
TC: Well of course, Flavio Briatore is well known for his compassionate and caring management style. Renault Group are a bit more profitable these days, but seem to be concentrating on their small car strengths of old with the new leccy 4 and 5 – it scarcely fits with F1, so maybe they are just preparing the team for sale, which includes closing down the engine shop which despite its history, nobody wants.
Talking of buying and selling teams, I wonder what Audi are thinking about their purchase of Sauber? To call their performance dire is a compliment. My guess is that just like those wrecks people buy for a data-plate/VIN “restoration”, they’re basically after the paperwork and not much else.
NB: They’re still basing it in Switzerland but with a “British Technical Office” in Northamptonshire, close to Aston Martin and Cadillac/Andretti. Looking ahead, it’s interesting that Andretti will be following the Haas model, using as much Ferrari as they’re allowed.
TC: How’s that going to work with Dallara already doing the Haas chassis? Who else could you conceivably trust to outsource an F1 chassis to?
NB: Good point, I don’t know. Maybe there will be a new company, in Northern Italy, half way between Maranello and Varano de’Melegari with some “job-shares”. Talking of Haas, Magnusen’s supposed to be testing some parts on the old cars that they’re allowed to use as mules. Maybe that Toyota funding will mean they’ll have some Italian flair in the designs but Japanese style logical development, so can become a lot stronger.
TC: You would want to keep Japanese management style well away as that failed last time. I imagine Toyota money is welcome, but who would ever expect Ferrari to be linked in any way with Toyota?
NB: Not natural bedfellows. All the teams this winter have been testing in last year’s or 2023 cars, which hasn’t happened in the past. Will that improve performance or reliability? And do you think the order will change much in 2025? Will it still be the Big Four?
TC: I can’t see any real breakthroughs being likely. McLaren started last year from fourth in 2023, and there’s a big gap between the top four and Aston Martin in fifth. I think Newey will be concentrating on the big changes in 2026, and while they won’t go backwards, I can’t see them overtaking Mercedes. They seem to have adopted an “all you can eat buffet” approach to picking up top people, and I can see friction developing. Mercedes in turn look surprisingly weak compared with the recent past. The top three teams have been fighting away, but Mercedes have kept a respectful distance.
NB: The big four took 89% of all points on offer; or put it another way the other six teams together only just scored more than one Mercedes driver ….and they were fourth. Based on the trajectories of the drivers and teams at the end of 2024, I feel quite optimistic about Charles. In the last quarter, he scored 111 points, more than any other driver. Max scored 106.
TC: I would like to think Charles has a good chance. I just don’t know how Lewis will respond if Charles starts beating him. Max will always be a likely champion, but I think Red Bull will continue to pander to him (or is it his dad) so that the car is problematic for another driver.
NB: Piastri is very strong in the head, and could be a McLaren challenger rather than Lando. I think he may have the ruthless streak which Lando doesn’t have. Maybe a few Piastri/Verstappen spats are on the cards?
TC: Midfield, that Toyota money might help Haas move forward, and Alpine started to do quite well at the end of the year. The changes we’ve talked about in those two teams might mean a nice lower midfield fight. I think we agree that Sauber and VCARB are basket cases.
NB: Williams undoubtedly have the best driver combination in the lower half of the field. Both should arguably be in top teams, and might be if it weren’t for politics. James Vowles has had a couple of years now to do something with the factory, and if nothing happens this year I think he might be in trouble.
TC: So is our prediction Verstappen/Leclerc/Piastri/Hamilton/Norris for the top five? Ferrari/McLaren/Red Bull for the constructors top three?
NB: I wouldn’t be quite so sure on the order, but it would be a major surprise if they don’t form the cast of characters.
TC: And surprise of the year? I’ll go for Sainz getting a podium.
NB: I’ll go for you buying me breakfast for a change.
TC: Don’t be ridiculous.
